iKoz

Crucial to the Liberal’s chances of attaining a majority government is that they can deliver one new seat in each of Tasmania’s five electorates, plus one other somewhere else in the state. Despite their confidence and enthusiasm, the electorate of Bass in Northern Tasmania looks likely to strangle the party’s electoral chances.

Bass includes the city of Launceston council area, George Town and Dorset, it also includes Riverside, Trevallyn, Prospect, Legana and Hadspen. (Source; Tasmanian Electoral Commission)

Dominated by the town of Launceston, the electorate of Bass extends to the North East farming heartland encompassing Scottsdale, Bridport and George Town. Bass includes the sometimes forgotten Flinders Island as well. In this 2010 election the towns of Legana and Hadspen have been incorporated into the electorate, the difference this will likely have on the final vote is probably negligible. At a federal level Bass is one of the most marginal seats in the country and it is critical for either Labor or Liberal to win. At the state level Bass has elected 2 labor, 2 liberal and 1 green since 2002. Below is a summary of the regions in Bass and how they voted in 2006:

*(Only valid votes included. Not all localities are listed, some polling booths in suburbs were merged.)

The Liberal’s campaign to win three seats in Bass has been set back by long standing Bass Member, Sue Napier’s decision to retire due to a return of aggressive breast cancer.  Sue’s decision not to contest this upcoming decision should mean the Liberal Party will really struggle to win the primary and preference votes vital to their election chances. Former Federal M.P Michael Ferguson (Liberal) is almost certain to win a seat now Sue has retired and existing Liberal member Peter Gutwein is likely to be re-elected easily. Labor MP Michelle O’Byrne will be fairly easily elected next Saturday and I think that an increased Green vote will probably allow Kim Booth to be elected earlier in the preference counting.

The polling suggests a fairly significant swing against Labor in Bass,  but until election day we can only speculate on the severity.  Labor still has a fairly strong dominance in this electorate, especially in Launceston’s poorer Northern suburbs. It’s easy to expect the party could lose between 10 and 15% of their primary vote, but in the case of such an anti-government swing, the Greens would likely capitalise a lot of new votes. Increasing the Liberal vote by 10% might not be enough to elect a third member. Labor has only been able to return 2 members in the last two elections, despite having a primary vote close to 50%.  Without Sue Napier, the Liberals chances of winning a third seat on the back of strong preference backing has been severely impaired. I think that Labor will hold a primary vote somewhere between 34 and 38 percent; which would still elect the same number of members on a steady flow of preferences. This would result in no change for Bass.

Prediction

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO:

2- Liberal:  Peter Gutwein and Michael Ferguson

2-Labor:  Michelle O’Byrne and 1 other, my guess being Brian Wrigtman

1-Green:  Kim Booth

LESS LIKELY OUTCOME:

3- Liberal:  Peter Gutwein, Michael Ferguson and 1 other, probably Michelle McGinity

1- Labor: Michelle O’Byrne

1- Green: Kim Booth

OR

3- Liberal: Peter Gutwein, Michael Ferguson and 1 other

2- Labor: Michelle O’Byrne and 1 other